Retail Participation at Peak Valuations in IPOs: Negative Convexity, Herding Dynamics, and Predictive Power for Market Corrections – Empirical Evidence, Econometric Framework, and Implications for SpaceX IPO

2 weeks ago

Executive Summary High retail investor participation in IPOs at stretched valuations generates negative convexity in the broader equity market: initial…

Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) in the Context of European Disengagement from Russian Oil/Gas and Global Oil Demand Reduction: Quantitative Strategic Assessment

2 weeks ago

The Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) — a 4,128 km project linking Nigerian gas fields (Warri region) through Niger to Algeria’s…

Refinery Activity and Supply Chain Integrity

2 weeks ago

Executive Summary Satellite signatures combined with AIS vessel tracking and OSINT currently indicate elevated refinery activity in US/Europe amid global…

Transition Risks and Fuel Demand Reduction: Attribution to 15-Minute Smart Cities, Localized Smart Digitalized & Decarbonized Economies

2 weeks ago

Executive Summary Reduction in refined fuel demand (gasoline/diesel) is primarily driven by electrification (EV penetration ~25% global new sales 2025,…

BIS/WEF Context on Transition Risks Compressing Long-Term Refining Margins: Carbon Tracker-Style Analysis and Quantitative Projections for TotalEnergies

2 weeks ago

Executive Summary Transition risks under 2°C pathways (IEA NZE/APS equivalents) drive structural demand destruction for refined products, compressing refining margins…

Liquidity Trap Scenario : Gold < $4,150, Oil ~$88 Stabilization – Integration with SpaceX IPO Retail Influx and Systemic Market Crash Risks

2 weeks ago

Executive Summary The posited Liquidity Trap manifests as a regime where elevated nominal asset prices (gold near recent highs, equities…

ESG/Fiscal Dimensions of Refiner Margin Squeeze: Carbon Pricing (Internal Shadow Prices) and Tax Loss Harvesting – TotalEnergies Case Study

2 weeks ago

1. Carbon Pricing Framework: Explicit (EU ETS) vs. Implicit/Internal Shadow Pricing TotalEnergies employs an internal carbon price (ICP)1 or shadow…

Refiner Margin Squeeze and the 3:2:1 Crack Spread Signal: Technical Analysis with Focus on TotalEnergies (as of mid-June 2026)

2 weeks ago

Executive Summary The 3:2:1 crack spread serves as a primary proxy for gross refining margins, calculated as: 3:2:1 Crack Spread=2×PGasoline (bbl)+1×PDistillate/Heating Oil (bbl)−3×PCrude (bbl)3\text{3:2:1 Crack Spread}…

Inflation Surge Crushes Gold & Silver Amidst Geopolitical Turbulence

2 weeks ago

Gold prices have plummeted, trading near $4,078.00, down 4.26%, and silver near $63.605, down 2.66%, following Wednesday's trading close. This…

Construction of a Conditional Hedge via MNQ Micro E-mini Nasdaq Short. Calibration on BTC Beta=0.45

3 weeks ago

This study details an advanced quantitative modeling of a conditional hedge for a crypto-exposed portfolio, employing Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ)…