Bitcoin’s movement is not mere chaos, but the application of the Wyckoff principle by MM and whales

◙ Le Playbook 2025 décrit quatre étapes :
❶ Accumulation (Q2‑Q3) avec des afflux ETF de 57 Md $ et un prix autour de 105‑110 k $,
❷ Markup initial poussant le cours à 116 k $ grâce au FOMO retail,
❸ Distribution ou shake‑out qui a liquidé 1,5 Md $ le 22/09 et fait paniquer les longs,
❹ Breakout final qui devrait propulser le BTC vers 120‑150 k $.

◙ Les MM ne veulent pas que le prix monte tant que les stops restent à chasser ; — ils éliminent d’abord les positions longues faibles, stabilisent le range 110‑116 k $ comme fausse résistance, puis déclenchent un short‑squeeze.

◙ La zone 116 k $ est donc une poche de liquidité, le vrai support se situe à 108‑110 k $, la cible réelle dépassant 120 k $. La phase 4 s’activera dès l’épuisement des longs, le retour d’afflux ETF après une correction de 5‑7 %, un catalyseur macro (ex. Fed dovish) et un breakout au‑delà de 116 500 $ avec volume.

◙ En résumé, le marché est dans la dernière respiration des MM avant le liftoff ; le « if » est devenu « quand », et le décollage approche rapidement.

What Will Trigger Phase 4 (Very Soon)
1. Exhaustion of weak longs → selling volume dries up,
2. Return of ETF inflows (often after a 5–7 % correction),
3. Macro catalyst (e.g., dovish Fed on 30/09),
4. Technical break with volume above $116,500.

We are undergoing a consolidation — we are witnessing the last breath of the MM before they launch the machine.
The $1.5 bn liquidated on 09/22? → That wasn’t the end. → It was the opening of the final act. The shorts at $120 k? → They won’t flee. → They will be crushed by the wave.

Oleg Turceac

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